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Research project (§ 26 & § 27)
Duration : 2017-06-01 - 2019-05-31

The project aims at • representing the Austrian bio-economy in an integrated modelling framework under changing climate, policy and market conditions at local and global scales, • identifying and analyzing types and sources of uncertainty in the integrated modelling framework, and at • communicating the uncertainties to potential users in an efficient format The integrated modelling framework for the assessment of the Austrian bio-economy consists of a bio-physical process model, an agronomic model, a spatially explicit bottom-up model of the Austrian agricultural and forestry sector, a bottom-up partial-equilibrium model of the global agricultural and forestry sector, as well as an econometric Input-Output model of the Austrian economy. Uncertainties and their propagation through the integrated assessment framework will be identified in several steps. First, we will define types and sources of uncertainties. Second, we will identify model parameters and model input data that are of interest to both model developers and stakeholders, ideally selecting those that are likely to have significant impact on both, the outcome of the integrated assessment framework and on uncertainty. This will be done in the context of climate, market and policy scenarios. Third, an adequate uncertainty analysis method has to be chosen based on the required time and computational resources. Finally, we will analyze the generated modelling framework output uncertainty in order to identify the contribution of single sources and types of uncertainty to modelling framework sensitivity and uncertainty. The project results should contribute to identifying robust mitigation and adaptation strategies in the Austrian bio-economy, to analyzing inherent uncertainties and to communicate these uncertainties to policy makers in a jointly developed and efficient format.
Research project (§ 26 & § 27)
Duration : 2016-12-01 - 2019-11-30

The pressure on the forest as a resource is high, especially as the forests provide a diversity of products, one being ecosystem services (ES). Different forest management options produce different combinations of ES, and hence decisions about the adoption of particular forest management options need to consider both the trade-offs and synergies between ES, as well as the societal demands for different ES. The aim of this interdisciplinary project is to develop knowledge that will help balance the evolving societal demands for different ES while safeguarding forests’ capacity to deliver them within the context of e.g., climate change or sustainability. The objective is to develop assessment, decision support and management tools that will facilitate joint delivery of ES. Countries in Europe have developed different forest management paradigms to prioritise and to adjust between conflicting objectives. These paradigm models and their capacities to promote synergies and address legitimate trade-offs between the deliveries of different ES are explored. Synergies and conflicts between different ES at national and international scales are identified together with local and international stakeholders. The delivery of mutually supporting and conflicting ES is studied at the landscape level. The specific objectives of this project is to a) develop an inclusive, comprehensive and systematic approach to assess and value ES, b) promote policy learning by analysing how different European forest paradigm models respond to increasing demands for various ES, c) provide decision making support tools to help balance the synergies and trade-offs between different forest ES at the policy and management level, and d) assess with an assemblage of simulation models emerging conflicts and synergies between ES in dependence of management regime, environmental and climatic changes at different spatial and temporal scales.
Research project (§ 26 & § 27)
Duration : 2017-04-01 - 2019-03-31

The project estimates in six scenarios the impacts of climate change and silvicultural adaptation measures on the significant GHG balance of the Austrian forests and related wood products/fuels (incl. avoided emissions from substitute products/fuels) until 2150. In addition, an analysis of these impacts on the Austrian forest and wood industry sector (the biggest economic sector in Austria) will be carried out (e.g. quantity and quality of wood delivery, needed technical adaptations). The socio-economic part of the project will provide an analysis and proposals for modifying the po-litical, legal and societal framework conditions in Austria for forest management and wood product use towards a GHG-optimised use. The results of the project are basic for needed societal transformations and adaptations to reach the Paris Agreement targets of a balance between GHG emissions and removals post 2050 and will identify needed adaptation measures in the Austrian wood industry due to climate change impacts and silvicultural consequences in the Austrian forests.

Supervised Theses and Dissertations